Photo by @superfooty (twitter)
- Port Adelaide Power enter Round 5 as the AFL’s lone undefeated club
- The Power face stiff test against the Brisbane Lions, while Gold Coast Suns and Hawthorn Hawks look to maintain strong June form
- Read on for all the odds and key trends going into Round 5 of the AFL campaign
Favorites once again took a beating in the fourth week of Aussie Rules action, with just three of nine clubs pegged as betting chalk covering the spread, and four favorites suffering outright losses. Among the losers were the Richmond Tigers, who suffered their second straight defeat at the hands of the resurgent St. Kilda Saints as well as the Collingwood Magpies, who dropped a narrow 66-64 decision to the Greater Western Sydney Giants while favored by 4.5.
With the Magpies’ defeat, the Port Adelaide Power look to their Round 5 matchup with the Brisbane Lions as the sole undefeated club remaining in the AFL. Despite their hot start, the Power continue to lag behind the Magpies in the AFL premiership futures, where they join the slumping Tigers at +600.
Read on for a betting preview and best picks for each of these matches.
Aussie Rules Round 5 Odds
|Carlton Blues||+5.0 (-115)||+115||O 128.5 (-115)|
|St. Kilda Saints||-5.0 (-120)||-160||U 128.5 (-115)|
|Collingwood Magpies||-13.5 (-115)||-250||O 117.5 (-115)|
|Essendon Bomber||+13.5 (-120)||+180||U 117.5 (-115)|
|West Coast Eagles||-9.5 (-115)||-185||O 126.5 (-115)|
|Sydney Swans||+9.5 (-120)||+135||U 126.5 (-115)|
|Geelong Cats||-19.5 (-115)||-360||O 123.5 (-115)|
|Gold Coast Suns||+19.5 (-115)||+245||U 123.5 (-115)|
|Brisbane Lions||-2.0 (-115)||-125||O 127.5 (-115)|
|Port Adelaide Power||+2.0 (-120)||-110||U 127.5 (-115)|
|Western Bulldogs||-5.0 (-120)||-155||O 126.5 (-115)|
|North Melbourne Kangaroos||+5.0 (-115)||+115||U 126.5 (-115)|
|Adelaide Crows||+10.0 (-115)||+140||O 123.5 (-115)|
|Fremantle Dockers||-10.0 (-120)||-190||U 123.5 (-115)|
|Melbourne Demons||-8.5 (-115)||-170||O 135.5 (-115)|
|North Melbourne Kangaroos||+8.5 (-115)||+125||U 135.5 (-115)|
|Greater Western Sydney Giants||-8.5 (-115)||-175||O 126.5 (-115)|
|Hawthorn Hawks||+8.5 (-120)||-175||U 126.5 (-115)|
Odds taken on July 1st
Competition Ramps Up for Undefeated Power
The Port Adelaide Power face arguably their toughest opponent of the season when they battle the Brisbane Lions on Saturday morning as 2-point underdogs. The club have built the AFL’s only perfect record this season on the strength of weak matchups, with each of their June victories coming against the bottom three clubs on the ladder – West Coast, Fremantle, and Adelaide.
😁 or 😠? pic.twitter.com/tmsJO85Lpk
— AFL (@AFL) June 28, 2020
The Power claimed victory by an average margin of over 50 points per game in those contests, but shutting down the Lions’ offense is likely to prove to be a far bigger challenge. Like Port Adelaide, the Lions have enjoyed the benefit of an easy schedule, with each of victories on their current three-match win streak also coming against the bottom three clubs.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Brisbane has enjoyed a steady run of matches on home turf, where they have won 11 of their past 13. In addition to their home dominance, the Lions outclassed the Power in a pair of impressive victories last season. While this match provides Port Adelaide with a golden opportunity to prove themselves as premiership contenders, it is difficult to go against a Lions squad swinging into form on home turf.
Picks: Brisbane Lions -2.0 (-115); OVER 127.5 (-115)
Can Surprising Suns Extend Streak Against Shaky Cats?
The Gold Coast Suns have emerged as one of the surprises of the season since the schedule resumed last month. Winners of just three matches through all of 2019, the Suns matched that total in June, going undefeated in three straight home matches, capped by last week’s 64-51 win over Fremantle.
However, maintaining that momentum on the road will be a massive challenge, particularly against the Geelong Cats.
🌞 SECOND ON THE LADDER 🌞
Suns keep on keeping on with a gritty win over Freoat Metricon
6⃣4⃣10.4 Gold Coast Suns
5⃣1⃣8.3 Fremantle Dockershttps://t.co/uAM7TFOfXy#AFL #AFLSunsFreo pic.twitter.com/37sPniWb83
— FlashScore.com.au (@FlashScoreAU) June 27, 2020
The top club on the AFL table, the Cats have struggled to duplicate that effort so far this season. The club is coming off a disappointing performance in a narrow 47-44 win over Melbourne last week, and have failed to show last season’s top-flight form since routing Hawthorn 108-47 in their second date of the season.
The Suns ride a boatload of confidence into Saturday’s contest, but it is unlikely to be enough to extend their win streak to four matches against a Cats squad that has beaten them by an average of 87 points in five previous meetings at GMHBA Stadium. Look for Geelong to get back on track, and bring the Suns crashing back to Earth, but struggle to cover.
Picks: Gold Coast Suns +19.5 (-115); OVER 123.5 (-115)
GWS, Hawthorn Have Plenty to Prove in Sunday Round 5 Finale
Following a pair of uninspired performances, the GWS Giants returned to more familiar form last weekend with an inspiring 66-64 victory over Collingwood. Pegged as 4.5-point underdogs, the Giants employed a stifling defense to frustrate the Magpies during a fourth-quarter comeback bid. However, offense remains a concern for the Giants, who averaged just 53 points per match over their three June outings.
Fortunately for GWS, the Hawks have also struggled at times to score points since returning to play. Hawthorn needed just 58 points to get past North Melbourne last week, equalling their average over their three June contests. However, the Hawks have impressed with bold defense, particularly two weeks ago in a stunning 71-39 upset of Richmond that marked one of the worst offensive performances in Tigers history.
Hawthorn also limited GWS to just nine total goals in a pair of wins last season, and with the Giants likely hitting the turf without Phil Davis and Zac Williams, who remain sidelined with injuries, look for the Hawks to provide the upset of the weekend.
Picks: Hawthorn Hawks to win (+125); UNDER 125.5 (-115)