Brighton v Man City
Saturday 11 July, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports
A good first campaign for Potter
Considering that they gifted Liverpool two early goals at the Amex on Wednesday, Brighton performed with credit to get back into the game and only lose 3-1. They even appeared to be in with a chance of getting a draw at one stage.
It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire on Saturday though, as this time they welcome the other leading light in the Premier League – Manchester City.
The good thing for Graham Potter and his men are that they have already picked up seven points since the end of lockdown, meaning that they are in little danger of being relegated. Therefore given that their brand of football has improved, the decision to sack Chris Hughton appears to have been justified.
Relentless City to rotate again
Pep Guardiola’s side have put in some devastating performances since they returned to action, but it will also frustrate Pep that his team have also been beaten twice. Their position as runners-up to Liverpool isn’t in jeopardy though, and they are through to the last four of the FA Cup.
The other pleasing thing for the manager will be how well some of his fringe players have done when given the chance. Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez have been excellent in recent weeks, and despite another vintage performance by David Silva in midweek, Guardiola will at least know he has other players who meet the standard for next season.
As far as the team news goes for this game, expect Raheem Sterling to be back in the XI, as well as Aymeric Laporte and possibly Bernardo Silva. They were all on the bench against Newcastle, so the pattern suggests that they will start here.
The Betfair layers are expecting a pretty one-sided affair, with City the red-hot favourites at the [1.34] mark. The draw is [6.0], with a Brighton win the outsider of the bunch at [10.5].
It’s hard to pick holes in any of those prices really. Man City are clearly the most likely winners, but I wouldn’t be interested in getting involved at such prohibitive odds. I am not tempted by the draw or a home win either.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t a bet to be had that involves the match-odds though. A Man City win and both teams to score is trading at around the [2.9] mark on the Betfair Exchange, and that is certainly of interest.
Admittedly the visitors have kept clean sheets in all five of their post lockdown victories, but they also lost twice, meaning that their defence isn’t unflappable.
Brighton were value for the goal they scored against Liverpool during the week, and they also netted twice against Arsenal, and once in their victory over Norwich. They won’t sit back and park the bus, and they will get chances against this City team.
Any game involving Man City will see Over 2.5 goals odds-on, and it is again here. The price on there being three goals or more is as short as [1.57], with Under 2.5 at [2.7].
Again, a bit like the match-odds, I can’t really argue with either of those prices, but I wouldn’t recommend a bet either. There could be a bit of mileage in Over 3.5 Goals at [2.38] though, as three of City’s five victories saw the ball in the net on at least four occasions, as did Brighton’s game against Liverpool on Wednesday.
Key Opta Stat
Phil Foden has scored four goals in five Premier League games since the restart, more than any other Manchester City player.
2019/20 P/L (1pt each bet)