- A set of head-to-head prop wagers pitting Tom Brady against Cam Newton during the 2020 NFL season have been released
- Who will win more games? Which one will have the leading passing yardage? Who’s going to throw for more touchdowns?
- Analysis of each prop and advice on which way to play them follows in the story below
Once Cam Newton signed with the New England Patriots, the comparisons between him and Tom Brady were inevitable. That’s the price of following a legend.
A series of prop bets are now out, offering head-to-head wagering on the numbers Brady and Newton will produce during the 2020 NFL season.
Tom Brady vs Cam Newton 2020 NFL Season Props
|Prop||Brady Odds||Newton Odds|
|Most Wins||Tom Brady -0.5 (-120)||Cam Newton +0.5 (-120)|
|Most Passing Yards||Tom Brady -400||Cam Newton +250|
|Most Touchdown Passes||Tom Brady -350||Cam Newton +225|
Odds taken June 30th. Both players must start first game and team must be scheduled for 16 games in the 2020-21 NFL regular season for action.
Brady left the Patriots to sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If Newton beats out Jarrett Stidham for the New England starting QB job, it’ll be the first time since 1993 that the Patriots have started a #1 QB who wasn’t homegrown.
Brady’s Winning Ways
No matter what he achieves with the Patriots, Newton isn’t going to outdo Brady. He won’t bring six Super Bowl titles to Foxborough.
Sports, though, are a results-oriented business. It’s about what a player can do for a team right now.
Cam Newton’s first commercial was with Tom Brady.pic.twitter.com/EL18twyg3U
— Only In Boston (@OnlyInBOS) June 29, 2020
Say what you will about Brady, the guy just wins. He’s never endured a losing season. Brady has hit double digits in wins in 11 straight seasons.
Through nine NFL campaigns, Newton has enjoyed three winning seasons. He’s 6-10 over his last 16 starts.
Tom Brady/Cam Newton NFL Season Averages
|Stat||Tom Brady||Cam Newton|
Brady is giving Newton a half-game spread to start the season in this prop. No matter. Only a fool bets against Brady when winning is involved.
Pick: Tom Brady (-120)
Newton’s End Zone Theory
In his last full NFL season in 2018, Newton thew 24 touchdowns. Last season, Brady threw 24 TDs of his own.
Newton is averaging 23.3 TD passes per season during his NFL career. Over his past four full seasons, he averaged 25 TD passes per year.
Brady, 42, has watched his TD pass numbers decline for three successive seasons. He threw for 32 scores in 2017 and 29 in 2018 before the 24 he engineered last season.
Tom Brady commented on @Edelman11’s Instagram post with Cam Newton? pic.twitter.com/WEikzIO3LA
— FanSided (@FanSided) June 30, 2020
He’s averaged 30.4 TD passes per season over his career. However, since league-leading 36 TD passes in 2015, he’s averaging just 28.3 over the past four seasons.
Take the price and play a hunch on Newton with this prop.
Pick: Cam Newton (+225)
Brady Will Throw a Bunch
In Tampa Bay, Brady will find no shortage of targets. He has two 1,000-yard wideouts at his disposal in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Bucs also lured former All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski out of retirement.
Remember, Brady’s predecessor Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yardage in 2019.
Cam Newton / Tom Brady
Last 16 games
370/560 – 66.1%
24 TD – 14 INT
373/613 – 60.8%
24 TD – 8 INT
— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) June 29, 2020
Newton doesn’t have that sort of receiving talent to target. As well, the Pats may opt to limit his snaps to protect his injury-prone body.
Brady has gone over 4,000 yards through the air three years in succession and in seven of the last eight seasons. Newton hasn’t topped 4,000 yards since 2011, his rookie season.
Pick: Tom Brady (-400)