Democratic Nomination Odds: Biden Appears To Be A Lock

Democratic Nomination Odds: Biden Appears To Be A Lock

In mid-May, it appeared that Joe Biden’s luster was dimming as former first lady Hillary Clinton’s odds were shortening. Clinton had a docu-series released on Hulu and soon after joined Biden in a town hall where she endorsed him but also boasted of her own resume, which many thought might be her first step toward running again in 2020.

After those events, we saw Clinton’s odds to win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination drop drastically from +1800 to +700 within a span of a week and a half, while Biden’s odds lengthened from -1200 to -600.

However, Clinton’s push has ended, Biden’s odds to win the nomination have shortened to an all-time low at -2000 and he is the -160 favorite over Donald Trump (+140) in the odds to win the 2020 presidential election. Clinton is now a distant third on the presidential oddsboard at +5000. Much of this change at the top is due to the president’s response to the George Floyd murder and the ongoing protests and riots.

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Check out the updated odds to win the Democratic presidential nomination at Bovada:

Odds To Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination
Candidate Current June 28 June 2 May 29 May 25 May 21 May 11 Apr 27 Apr 23 Apr 14 Apr 9 Apr 8 Apr 3 Apr 2 Mar 31 Mar 27 Mar 18 Mar 15 Mar 11 Mar 9 Mar 5 Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Feb 25 Feb 23 Feb 21 Feb 12 Feb 5 Jan 29 Jan 21 Jan 13 Jan 2 Opening
Joe Biden -2000 -1600 -1000 -800 -800 -700 -600 -1200 -1200 -1000 -1600 -700 -600 -450 -450 -600 -1600 -1000 -4000 -800 -500 -115 +190 +240 +1000 +1000 +800 +1000 +450 +185 +160 +225 +200 +200
Hillary Clinton +1600 +1400 +800 +750 +750 +750 +700 +1800 +2000 +1600 +2500 +1600 +2000 +2000 +2000 +1500 +1000 +1400 +2000 +2000 +1800 +3000 +2000 +3000 +2800 +2500 +2000 +2000 +2000 +2000 +2000 +2000 +1600 +4000
Andrew Cuomo +2500 +2500 +2800 +2000 +1800 +1800 +1800 +1400 +1400 +1000 +2200 +1200 +1000 +700 +750 +1000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +10000
Michelle Obama +2200 +2000 +2800 +3300 +3300 +3300 +3300 +4000 +4000 +4000 +4000 +4000 +4500 +5000 +5000 +4000 +5000 +4000 +5000 +5000 +8000 +10000 N/A N/A +15000 +10000 +10000 +10000 +10000 +8000 +8000 +10000 N/A +8000
Bernie Sanders N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +1600 +1200 +1000 +1000 +1500 +2500 +1500 +2000 +650 +450 +150 -110 -115 -130 -120 EVEN +110 +150 +160 +160 +215 +350 +450
Tulsi Gabbard N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +20000 +20000 +20000 +20000 +50000 +50000 +50000 +50000 +25000 +15000 +20000 +20000 +15000 +10000 +10000 N/A +3000
Michael Bloomberg N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +1200 +600 +600 +400 +325 +400 +250 +350 +500 +700 +650 +450 N/A
Pete Buttigieg N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +3500 +1100 +900 +600 +500 +450 +1400 +900 +1000 +600 +450
Elizabeth Warren N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +5000 +5000 +5000 +8000 +5000 +2000 +2500 +1200 +1500 +700 +650 +450 +700
Amy Klobuchar N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +15000 +10000 +4000 +1500 +6600 +4000 +5000 +3300 +3000 +4000
Tom Steyer N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +25000 +10000 +15000 +15000 +10000 +12500 +12500 +12500 +10000
Deval Patrick N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +10000 +15000 +25000 +20000 +20000 +15000 +8000 N/A

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

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Harris Favored To Be VP

It was likely the biggest moment of the head-to-head debate between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden on Sunday, March 15, when both stated that they would have a female vice-president.

California Senator Kamala Harris, who dropped out of the Democratic presidential nomination race in early December, is favored to be the VP running mate. Harris was fourth on the opening oddsboard for the Democratic presidential nomination with odds of +550. The senator cited finances as the main reason for suspending her campaign.

Online sportsbook Bovada has Harris as the favorite at -110, followed by Susan Rice at +500, Val Demings at +650, Tammy Duckworth at +1100 and Elizabeth Warren at +1400 to round out the top five names on the oddsboard.

Harris as the VP nominee makes sense as she’s not extremely far left, she’s black, she’s 55, which is younger than many other names on the list, and she’s a college-educated woman who checks a lot of demographic boxes.

Here’s a look at the full list of odds to be the Democratic vice-presidential nominee:

Odds to Be Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee
Candidate Odds
Kamala Harris -110
Susan Rice +500
Val Demings +650
Tammy Duckworth +1100
Elizabeth Warren +1400
Michelle Obama +1600
Keisha Lance Bottoms +2500
Michelle Lujan Grisham +2500
Stacey Abrams +3500
Hillary Clinton +8000
Karen Bass +8000
Catherine Cortez Masto +10000
Gretchen Whitmer +10000
Tammy Baldwin +10000
Andrew Cuomo +15000
Tulsi Gabbard +15000

Odds as of July 2 at Bovada

Sanders Suspends Campaign

After winning just seven of the 26 states that held their primaries in March, Bernie Sanders decided to suspend his campaign and the odds suggested that was the right move. The Vermont senator entered March as the betting favorite to be the Democratic nominee at -115, just shy of his lowest odds of -130 on February 25. His opening odds of +450 put him second on the oddsboard behind Joe Biden.

Following the results of Super Tuesday and the mini-Super Tuesdays throughout March, Sanders’ odds skyrocketed as high as +2500 on March 18, behind even Hillary Clinton (+1000), who was not even in the race.

On April 8, Bernie’s odds had stabilized at +1600, tied with Clinton for third on the list behind Biden and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Before the vote in the Wisconsin primary came out, Sanders dropped out of the race and he did end up losing that state so it was unlikely he would make up enough ground to catch Biden. Most recently, Sanders has endorsed Biden to be the next POTUS.

Biden Campaign Trail Missteps

At the very top of Biden’s campaign to-do list over the next few months is to avoid viral moments like this:

Whereas President Trump utters cringe-worthy and controversial phrases on what seems like a daily basis, Biden’s in-your-face personal engagements observed here and in the past, like when he challenged an Iowa voter to a push-up contest, are perceived as more intense than Trump’s broad-brush, both-sides-of-his-mouth commentary that is often categorized as misunderstood.

In other words, if Biden wants to match Trump in the tough-guy, tough-talk approach during debates and on the campaign trail, he needs to recalibrate the optics.

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