In mid-May, it appeared that Joe Biden’s luster was dimming as former first lady Hillary Clinton’s odds were shortening. Clinton had a docu-series released on Hulu and soon after joined Biden in a town hall where she endorsed him but also boasted of her own resume, which many thought might be her first step toward running again in 2020.
After those events, we saw Clinton’s odds to win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination drop drastically from +1800 to +700 within a span of a week and a half, while Biden’s odds lengthened from -1200 to -600.
However, Clinton’s push has ended, Biden’s odds to win the nomination have shortened to an all-time low at -2000 and he is the -160 favorite over Donald Trump (+140) in the odds to win the 2020 presidential election. Clinton is now a distant third on the presidential oddsboard at +5000. Much of this change at the top is due to the president’s response to the George Floyd murder and the ongoing protests and riots.
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Check out the updated odds to win the Democratic presidential nomination at Bovada:
|Candidate||Current||June 28||June 2||May 29||May 25||May 21||May 11||Apr 27||Apr 23||Apr 14||Apr 9||Apr 8||Apr 3||Apr 2||Mar 31||Mar 27||Mar 18||Mar 15||Mar 11||Mar 9||Mar 5||Mar 3||Mar 2||Mar 1||Feb 25||Feb 23||Feb 21||Feb 12||Feb 5||Jan 29||Jan 21||Jan 13||Jan 2||Opening|
Odds as of July 2 at Bovada
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Harris Favored To Be VP
It was likely the biggest moment of the head-to-head debate between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden on Sunday, March 15, when both stated that they would have a female vice-president.
California Senator Kamala Harris, who dropped out of the Democratic presidential nomination race in early December, is favored to be the VP running mate. Harris was fourth on the opening oddsboard for the Democratic presidential nomination with odds of +550. The senator cited finances as the main reason for suspending her campaign.
Online sportsbook Bovada has Harris as the favorite at -110, followed by Susan Rice at +500, Val Demings at +650, Tammy Duckworth at +1100 and Elizabeth Warren at +1400 to round out the top five names on the oddsboard.
Harris as the VP nominee makes sense as she’s not extremely far left, she’s black, she’s 55, which is younger than many other names on the list, and she’s a college-educated woman who checks a lot of demographic boxes.
Here’s a look at the full list of odds to be the Democratic vice-presidential nominee:
|Keisha Lance Bottoms||+2500|
|Michelle Lujan Grisham||+2500|
|Catherine Cortez Masto||+10000|
Odds as of July 2 at Bovada
Sanders Suspends Campaign
After winning just seven of the 26 states that held their primaries in March, Bernie Sanders decided to suspend his campaign and the odds suggested that was the right move. The Vermont senator entered March as the betting favorite to be the Democratic nominee at -115, just shy of his lowest odds of -130 on February 25. His opening odds of +450 put him second on the oddsboard behind Joe Biden.
Today I am suspending my campaign. But while the campaign ends, the struggle for justice continues on. https://t.co/MYc7kt2b16
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) April 8, 2020
Following the results of Super Tuesday and the mini-Super Tuesdays throughout March, Sanders’ odds skyrocketed as high as +2500 on March 18, behind even Hillary Clinton (+1000), who was not even in the race.
On April 8, Bernie’s odds had stabilized at +1600, tied with Clinton for third on the list behind Biden and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Before the vote in the Wisconsin primary came out, Sanders dropped out of the race and he did end up losing that state so it was unlikely he would make up enough ground to catch Biden. Most recently, Sanders has endorsed Biden to be the next POTUS.
Biden Campaign Trail Missteps
At the very top of Biden’s campaign to-do list over the next few months is to avoid viral moments like this:
WATCH: “You’re full of sh*t,” @JoeBiden tells a man who accused him of “actively trying to end our Second Amendment right.”
“I support the Second Amendment,” Biden adds while visiting under-construction auto plant in Detroit. @CBSNews pic.twitter.com/sueOSBaY9P
— Bo Erickson CBS (@BoKnowsNews) March 10, 2020
Whereas President Trump utters cringe-worthy and controversial phrases on what seems like a daily basis, Biden’s in-your-face personal engagements observed here and in the past, like when he challenged an Iowa voter to a push-up contest, are perceived as more intense than Trump’s broad-brush, both-sides-of-his-mouth commentary that is often categorized as misunderstood.
In other words, if Biden wants to match Trump in the tough-guy, tough-talk approach during debates and on the campaign trail, he needs to recalibrate the optics.