The Patriots did it again. New England signed a former superstar for pennies on the dollar with the promise to help him get back on top.
Cam Newton time is now in Foxboro after signing a one-year deal for $7.5 Million. Backup quarterbacks, like Taysom Hill ($16M) and Jacoby Brissett ($15M), will make twice as much as the former league MVP.
With Newton’s arrival, the New England Patriots are back in contention for the AFC East division. Nothing against second-year QB Jarett Stidham, but it feels a lot different when you have a player that has proven he can win in the NFL.
Yes, you guessed it. The NFL odds have moved a lot now that Bill Belichick has a new quarterback in town. Let’s take a look at the Cam Newton effect on the betting odds.
Cam Newton played two games in 2019 before he was placed on IR for a foot injury. He qualifies for the Comeback Player of the Year award in 2020.
Cam didn’t have a team before Sunday night, meaning there were no odds on him. Now BetOnline has Newton at +400 to win the award. He’s second on the list behind Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger (+300) and slightly above Buccaneers’ TE Rob Gronkowski (+450).
First, Cam needs to win the starting QB job over Jared Stidham to have a real shot. Newton will enter training camp with the position open for competition, but far behind in chemistry and knowledge of the system.
Odds to be Patriots starting QB
Cam Newton -125
Jarrett Stidham +110
Brian Hoyer +1000
? https://t.co/rEfVlRXANR pic.twitter.com/EUOmCHjn9j
— BetOnline.ag (@betonline_ag) June 30, 2020
Nevertheless, his experience and talent should be enough to overtake Stidham. Jared must ball out in training camp and preseason to win the job. I have my money on Newton starting in week one.
Cam has a few things going his way over Ben or Gronk.
Roethlisberger is 38-years old. His contribution is essential, but the Steelers will be more of a defensive team, with a not so flashy offense.
Roethlisberger Is Past His Prime
Don’t get me wrong, Roethlisberger will do an excellent job, but he’s past his prime. He won’t wow anybody.
Newton, instead, is flamboyant, and hungry. People have doubted him. The Panthers cut him and treated him with little to no respect. The Patriots won’t hesitate to put on a system that will help him thrive. They always do. He’s in an excellent position to have a successful year.
When compared to Gronk, Cam is in a better position to receive most of the credit. He’s the quarterback and will be the main reason New England has a shot or not at the playoffs.
Gronk will be an asset for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it’s almost a given than most of the credit will go to Tom Brady if they win the NFC South. It’s the QB effect. He also has quite a long injury history.
Cam is a great bet for the comeback of the year award at +400.
When Cam Newton won the MVP award in 2015, he threw 3867 yards, 35 touchdowns, and ten interceptions. He added 636 yards and 10 TDs on the ground.
The raw numbers of that season are very good, but not incredible. What helped him was the Panthers finished the season 15-1. It’s unlikely the Patriots will have a similar season with Newton under center, and I don’t expect him to have better numbers than in 2015 either.
We are living in the Patrick Mahomes era now. To win the MVP, you need unreal numbers attached to an almost unbeaten season. Lamar Jackson had one of those in 2019, and that’s why he won it.
Cam Newton is 25/1 at BetOnline to win the MVP. I like longshot bets, but I don’t see how this one becomes a winner. The Patriots have little to no talent on offense to help him.
Our top choices should be:
- Mahomes (+450)
- Jackson (+800)
- Russell Wilson (+1200)
- Dak Prescott (+1200)
It’s safe to say that when Tom Brady joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the offseason, most people buried the Patriots’ chances to win the Super Bowl.
The AFC East title division is more achievable, mostly because the teams inside the division can’t help but shoot themselves in the foot. The Buffalo Bills seem to be the only real threat.
Before Newton signed with New England, the Patriots were +160 to win the AFC East while the Bills were +120.
After Cam printed the signature on his contract, both New England and Buffalo moved to +130. I don’t expect the odds to stay this way. Don’t be surprised if the Patriots open as divisional favorites in week one.
Without even training one snap yet, Newton became the best QB inside the division. This means, if you like the Pats to keep the reign of terror in the AFC East, you should take them now.
The Patriots moved from +1200 to +1000 to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl LV. But also, from 25/1 to 20/1 to win the Lombardi Trophy.
The Cam Newton effect is in full motion. However, Cam hasn’t thrown 25 touchdowns in a season since he recorded 35 during his MVP year in 2015.
Don’t sign me up for another Patriots’ Super Bowl just yet.
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