Poirier vs Hooker Betting Preview, Odds & Prediction for UFC on ESPN 12

  • Date & Location: Saturday, June 27 @ Apex Gym in Las Vegas, NV
  • Odds: Dustin Poirier -210, Dan Hooker +170
  • Prediction: Poirier by decision

On June 27, Dustin Poirier faces Dan Hooker in the main event of the UFC on ESPN 12 fight card. Poirier, who is the former UFC interim lightweight champion, is currently the No. 3-ranked fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings. Hooker, who opened his UFC career as a featherweight but moved to 155 pounds in June 2017, is the No. 5-ranked fighter in the weight division.

Poirier is coming off a loss in a title-unification bout with 155-pound kingpin Khabib Nurmagomedov. Hooker has won his past three UFC outings.

POIRIER VS HOOKER ODDS

Fighter Odds
Dustin Poirier -210
Dan Hooker +170

POIRIER VS HOOKER PREDICTION & PICK

This is a matchup that could headline a pay-per-view card. Poirier and Hooker are two of the toughest and most exciting fighters in the 155-pound weight class.

Poirier has only been stopped by strikes in two of his 32 professional bouts. Hooker’s sole TKO defeat came in a matchup against Edson Barboza in a bout where his corner could have thrown in the towel before he absorbed a nasty body kick that dropped him to his knees.

Between them, Poirier and Hooker have 36 stoppage wins in their 45 combined victories. Both men rank in the top-10 in lightweight history in strikes landed per minute. Poirier is No. 3 in that category at 6.51, while Hooker is No. 7 at 5.75. With that, be prepared for a striking battle.

Hooker is the taller fighter and he has a reach advantage, but Poirier is the better all-around competitor. Poirier has also faced the best in the division for a long while and he has more experience in five-round fights.

Pick: Poirier (-210)

BETTING VALUE WITH POIRIER

Poirier has the power and skills to stop most opponents, but Dan Hooker is not most opponents. He absorbed 126 significant strikes against Barboza. While Hooker was absorbing damage inside the octagon, UFC commentator Daniel Cormier implored someone to stop the fight, stating “We didn’t need to see that. This fight was done. We should have stopped this fight a while ago.”

With Hooker’s toughness, I would say a stoppage from Poirier is possible, but not likely. That’s why I feel this fight will go the five-round distance.

WHO HAS THE EDGE?

Statistically, these two are fairly close, but Poirier has a slight advantage in every offensive and defensive category over Hooker other than takedown defense. Yes, Hooker is taller and longer than Poirier, but that’s not something Poirier hasn’t dealt with before.

Poirier has the advantage in this contest because of his experience. He’s been near the top of the lightweight division for a while. His past five fights have all been main events and all but one of his past six opponents have held UFC titles. The one fighter who hasn’t been a UFC champ in that group, Justin Gaethje, is a former World Series of Fighting champion and will fight for a UFC belt in his next bout.

RECENT FIGHTS

Poirier had a brilliant run before Nurmagomedov submitted him in the third round of their September 2019 scrap. His record leading into that fight was 5-0-0-1. Three of those victories came via stoppage.

The Nurmagomedov fight could not have gone worse for Poirier. The champion overwhelmed him for the entire length of the bout. However, Poirier does not seem to have let the loss affect his confidence.

The loss to Barboza is the only blemish on Hooker’s UFC lightweight record. He is 7-1 at 155 pounds and coming off decision wins over two of the tougher challenges in the lightweight division: Al Iaquinta and Paul Felder. Hooker scored fight-night bonus awards in two of his past three outings.

FIGHT STATS: POIRIER VS HOOKER

Dustin Poirier Category Dan Hooker
31 Age 30
25-5-0-1 Record 20-8
12 Knockout Wins 10
7 Submission Wins 7
6 Decision Wins 3
5’9″” Height 6’0″
155 Weight 155
72″ Reach 75″
Southpaw Stance Switch
5.51 Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.76
49% Striking Accuracy 45%
3.97 Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute 4.67
56% Striking Defense 55%
1.55 Takedown Average Per 15 Minutes 0.43
37% Takedown Accuracy 28%
61% Takedown Defense 78%
1.2 Submission Average Per 15 Minutes 0.3

WHAT’S AT STAKE

The UFC lightweight division is in a strange spot right now. Nurmagomedov and Gaethje are expected to face off sometime before fall. The winner of that fight will likely get matched up against former two-division champion Conor McGregor. What that means for the winner of this contest is he will most likely have to take another fight before he gets a title shot.

The likely opponent for the winner of this bout will either be the No. 2-ranked Toy Ferguson of the loser of the Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje bout.

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