The 2020 NFL season will start on Thursday, September 10, with the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans. It may be a few months before the start of the season, but people are already thinking about prop bets.
There are many prop bets featuring players of all sorts throughout the league. These bets include projections on what to expect out of these players. While it’s never easy for people to fully predict what might happen, it does help to look at trends surrounding players and the competition they will be facing in 2020.
With those points in mind, let’s look at a few of the best early NFL prop bets to place for the 2020 NFL season. These are all widely available at the leading NFL betting sites.
Note: All prop bets are based on regular season statistics.
6 – Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Over 3199.5 (-125)
Much can be made about how Lamar Jackson is a dual threat who can pass and run with the best of them. Jackson had five games in 2019 where he ran for 100 or more yards. He also threw for 3,127 yards last year.
The Ravens have a favorable schedule in 2020. The team will compete against various clubs with weak defenses, including Washington, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and the New York Giants. Playing Cincinnati and Cleveland twice a year will also help Jackson go over the 3,200-yard mark for passing.
But the concern for Jackson is that people might have exposed how inconsistent he is in passing. Jackson fell apart in his playoff loss to Tennessee last year. He went 31-59 and threw two interceptions against the Titans. Teams might be realizing that Jackson does have weaknesses. They may look to exploit those points in 2020. But Jackson’s strong ability to make plays and keep defenses guessing should help. A relatively easy schedule will also be useful.
5 – Tom Brady Passing Yards Under 4225.5 (-105)
While there is a -125 line for Tom Brady to go over 4225.5 passing yards in 2020, it may be better to wager that he will not go that far. Brady, who will be 43 years of age when the season starts, has been experiencing diminishing results in the last few years. He remains one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but his best days might be behind him. Not having Bill Belichick as his coach may make things harder.
Brady led the NFL in 2017 with 4,577 passing yards with New England. His total has dropped in each year down to 4,355 yards in 2018 and to 4,057 yards in 2019.
Rob Gronkowski will be coming back to the league in 2020, as he will reunite with Brady as his tight end in Tampa. But taking a full year off from the NFL might be a problem. Gronk hasn’t completed a full season without missing a game since 2011, so that might not help Brady all that much.
Brady does have a few respectable options in Mike Evans, OJ Howard, and Chris Godwin. But those wideouts pale in comparison with some of his better options in New England like Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu.
4 – Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Over 1250.5 (-115)
There’s a -115 line for both Saquon Barkley going over and under 1250.5 yards. But picking the over is the best choice for 2020.
There is far too much uncertainty surrounding the passing game on the NFC side of East Rutherford in 2020. Daniel Jones might be young, but he is already an unpopular figure in New York. Bringing in Colt McCoy as a backup isn’t helping his cause, either.
Expect the Giants to rely on Saquon Barkley for much of the team’s offensive production. The good news for the Giants is that Barkley has recovered from an injury that caused him to miss a few games last year. Some of his best performances happened at the end of last year, including a 189-yard performance against Washington. Playing the Redskins twice each year helps, and Skins’ defensive line rookie Chase Young will need help that Daniel Snyder isn’t giving him.
The Giants bolstered their offensive line in the draft, bringing in Georgia’s Andrew Thomas and Connecticut’s Matt Peart. They should enhance a sturdy line that will give Barkley the support he needs.
3 – Gardner Minshew Passing Yards Over 3499.5 (+110)
There are many reasons why Gardner Minshew will build upon his rookie season in Jacksonville, where he threw for 3,271 yards. Minshew threw for about 233 yards per game in 14 games last year. He will be completely in the fold for 2020. Wideouts Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley have been developing their skills in the past few years. The Jaguars also have plenty of easy opponents on the 2020 schedule, including Miami, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Chicago.
One variable that might help Minshew is that all eight of the Jaguars’ home games will be at TIAA Bank Field. The Jaguars usually hold one home game in London, but they were to play at Wembley Stadium twice this year. There have been rumors that the team’s owner was seriously considering moving the team to London altogether.
But all London-based games for the 2020 season will be relocated to the United States. These include both of the Jaguars’ London games. There have been worries how all that travel can keep players from being as productive and ready to play, even if teams do get a bye week after their London games. Playing on this side of the pond all year long should help Minshew’s stats.
2 – A.J. Green Receptions Under 69.5 (-115)
The Cincinnati Bengals are in the midst of a long-term rebuilding plan. The Bengals are hoping to build a foundation around rookie quarterback Joe Burrow. But A.J. Green probably will not be a part of the team’s future.
Green was given the franchise tag to remain with the Bengals in 2020. But the team is aiming to build around Burrow and two other wide receivers, Tyler Boyd and rookie Tee Higgins.
Boyd has become the top wide receiver in Cincinnati, especially as Green has struggled to stay healthy. Green played in nine games in 2018, and he missed all of 2019. Don’t expect Green to be as much of a target as Boyd and Higgins will, even if he is fully healthy.
1 – Baker Mayfield Touchdowns Over 24.5 (-145)
The Cleveland Browns went 6-10 last year, a total dramatically lower than what many people expected. The Browns proved last year that just because a team has a great offseason doesn’t mean it will dominate the regular season.
Baker Mayfield felt much of the brunt from expectations last year. With 22 touchdowns versus 21 interceptions, Mayfield showed that he was more efficient in the commercial breaks on games than during the games themselves.
But Mayfield and the rest of the Browns are hoping to mature this year. Jarvis Landry should help Mayfield quite well, although there are worries about whether Odell Beckham Jr. will make a comeback or retain his diva status.
Expect Mayfield to bounce back well enough to throw at least 25 touchdowns. He threw 27 touchdowns in 2018 versus 14 interceptions, so there’s no reason he can’t make a comeback.